And so, listen up – Democrats are clear favourites to win Georgia’s Senate seat, and there’s little reason to think that will change. But 49 is not 50, and the one state that I seem to be able to call is, fortunately, the one that has a lot of people panicking right now. I bring up all this history for a reason – I don’t have the credibility to plant my flag without a hell of a lot of evidence in 49 states. I don’t say any of this to play some woe is me song – it would be played on the world’s tiniest violin if I did – but as a statement as the bleeding obvious. I avoid doing this with, say, Blake Masters – a candidate who has shown literally nothing to justify this conservatism from me, and who the GOP are probably triaging now that the Senate Leadership Fund is pulling money – because I know that I just can’t do that and have any credibility. It’s why I mostly save my flag plants for rare races now – say, Josh Shapiro or Brian Kemp, two candidates I fundamentally can’t see losing. ![]() The worst part is, it wouldn’t even be an unreasonable claim, given the history I have in predicting US elections, and I know this. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but I haven’t put out a House forecast in a while, for a simple reason – I know if I put out my forecast, based on the current Generic Ballot, it would get resoundingly mocked and made fun of as just another wishcast from a dumbass Democrat who can’t stop predicting Democrats to do well.
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